Israel’s protracted war in Gaza over the past 14 months has been nothing short of devastating.
The conflict, which erupted as a response to the Hamas-led 7 October attack, has led to the death of over 44,000 Palestinians, mostly women and children, and the effective displacement of the enclave’s entire population.
But for all the destruction, Hezbollah’s backing of Hamas has, for the majority of the hostilities, offered a respite to Hamas.
Despite admittedly not coordinating with Hamas on the 7 October attack, Hezbollah has maintained strong support for its ally and escalated cross-border assaults in response to Israel’s ground invasion of Gaza.
Israel unleashed intensive airstrikes in southern Lebanon and the capital, Beirut, resulting in the displacement of nearly 1.2 million people and the deaths of 3,700, including key Hezbollah leaders, notably former Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah. By October 2024, Israel’s war effort culminated in a “ground operation” in southern Lebanon.
In late November, the United States and France brokered a ceasefire agreement between Hezbollah and Israel, wherein the former is required to withdraw its fighters and military presence from areas south of the Litani River, approximately 40 kilometres from the Israeli border.
With a relative cessation of hostilities now in place and Hezbollah effectively sidelined, Hamas faces the loss of its most significant regional ally in the conflict. Observers suggest that despite the ceasefire in Lebanon, Israel appears unlikely to relent in Gaza until its broader strategic goals are met.
This, eventually, could potentially open the door to a resolution in Gaza and contribute to a weakening of Hamas as external support diminishes and internal pressures mount
Political analyst Bilal Mahmoud notes that if the ceasefire holds, it could weaken the coordinated efforts of resistance movements across multiple theatres, a critical test of their cohesion and ability to sustain a multi-front campaign against Israel.
“While forces in Yemen and Iraq have intermittently joined the fray, Hezbollah remains the linchpin, capable of exerting the most significant pressure on Israel’s interior,” he said.
Historically, Mahmoud sees the “unity of fronts,” a concept that encapsulates the idea of different resistance groups, such as Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and various militias in Iraq and Yemen, coordinating their efforts against Israel to create a unified response to Israeli actions across multiple geographic areas.
“The recent round of fighting has highlighted both the potential and limitations of the ‘unity of fronts’ strategy, exposing gaps in coordination among its adherents, each with distinct priorities and roles,” he continued.
For his part, political commentator Khaldoun Barghouti warned that the ceasefire in Lebanon could intensify pressure on Hamas.
“This aligns with Netanyahu’s strategy to prolong the war and avoid any negotiated deals,” Barghouti explained, adding that such a course would help the Israeli prime minister stave off potential investigations into the war’s handling.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, he noted, is also facing mounting advocacy from settler groups, led by figures like Daniella Weiss, who are pushing for expanded settlements in Gaza. Support for these initiatives is growing within Netanyahu’s coalition, including key ministers and Knesset members from Likud.
“As the ceasefire in Lebanon holds for now, all eyes remain on Gaza, where the next phase of this protracted conflict will likely play out, with ripple effects across the region,” he said.
A murky deal for Gaza
“Despite the Israeli military’s push for a prisoner exchange deal, the political leadership remains firmly opposed, complicating efforts to reach an agreement similar to the Lebanon ceasefire,” Barghouti said. He notes that the political interests of Netanyahu and his coalition partners diverge from those of the military establishment.
“The ongoing military operations in northern Gaza could soon extend to the central and southern regions, aligning with the ambitions of Netanyahu’s allies, particularly far-right figures like Itamar Ben-Gvir, who recently signalled a softening stance on the idea of resettling Gaza. This shift suggests an impending escalation, despite optimistic rhetoric about potential negotiations,” he added.
Barghouti also highlights a growing risk that Israel might deliberately sabotage any deal, as it has in the past. But despite the hurdles, he believes that Israel will “eventually need to offer concessions” to secure the release of the remaining Israeli hostages.
“Internal strife within Israel and mounting pressure from families of the captives, exacerbated by warnings from Israel’s security apparatus about deteriorating conditions for the hostages, are complicating the government’s position,” he said.
Adding to the pressure is President-elect Donald Trump’s explicit call for the release of hostages. Barghouthi noted that Trump’s assertive tone, which could be interpreted as a veiled threat, has heightened expectations for a resolution.
Trump’s incoming Middle East envoy, meanwhile, has reportedly travelled to Qatar and Israel in an attempt to reach a hostage deal and ceasefire before the US president-elect takes office on 20 January.
Researcher Anas Abu Arqoub points out that the Lebanon ceasefire has “intensified calls within Israel for a prisoner swap,” particularly among opposition figures and segments of civil society. But these demands “have yet to gain significant traction”.
“Hamas appears determined to maintain its core demands while showing tactical flexibility,” he told The New Arab. “A deal that aligns with international norms could bolster its position and create political challenges for Netanyahu, particularly in dealing with the incoming US administration.”
However, the current indicators suggest that a breakthrough, either militarily or politically, remains elusive, “at least in the short term,” according to Abu Arqoub.
“For now, both sides seem entrenched, preparing for an extended confrontation that will test not only their resilience but also the geopolitical landscape of the region,” he added.
Hamas isolated
Mohammad Awawda, an expert on Israeli affairs, argues that the recent Lebanon ceasefire will influence Gaza’s trajectory, particularly by weakening Hamas’s strategic position. He notes that Hamas’s ties to the Iranian axis have been effectively severed during the war, a deliberate Israeli objective aimed at isolating Gaza from the northern front.
The severing of this “umbilical cord” between Gaza and Lebanon, according to Awawda, leaves Hamas in a precarious position. The group, once emboldened by regional support, now finds itself “isolated and reliant solely on its internal resources”.
“This isolation, combined with the prolonged conflict’s toll on Hamas’s leadership and military capabilities, may push the organisation toward greater flexibility in negotiations,” he added.
Additionally, the deteriorating humanitarian conditions in Gaza are placing immense pressure on the organisation, Awada said, adding that as living conditions worsen, Hamas may be forced to adopt “a more conciliatory stance in negotiations,” seeking a deal that provides some relief to the besieged population.
Moreover, the region’s shifting alliances and the uncertain role of external actors, particularly the United States under the incoming Trump administration, add another layer of complexity.
“Whether a comprehensive deal can be achieved will depend on the willingness of all parties to make concessions and the extent to which international pressure can influence the negotiations,” he said.
“For now, the situation remains in flux, with both sides navigating a delicate balance between military objectives and the pursuit of a tenuous peace.”
This article is published in collaboration with Egab
