A countdown to the potential fall of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government seems to have begun amid escalating internal and external political complications.
Following the ceasefire deal with Hamas in Gaza, the narrowest right-wing coalition in Israel’s history faces increasing instability from both domestic pressures within the Israeli political system and international expectations.
Internal political turmoil
Netanyahu is struggling to maintain control as key coalition members threaten to withdraw. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and former National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir have both pressured Netanyahu to resume military operations in Gaza.
Officially, Ben-Gvir resigned after the ceasefire agreement with Hamas, calling it “disastrous and shameful,” and Smotrich has hinted at a similar move, which could collapse the government.
Additionally, ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) parties have threatened to dissolve the coalition if a proposed conscription law requiring them to enlist in the Israeli military is passed. This puts Netanyahu in a difficult position, as he must balance demands from extremist factions while preventing his government from imploding.
Israeli media outlets have reported a secret agreement between Netanyahu and Smotrich, in which the Israeli PM had allegedly promised to resume fighting in Gaza, dismantle Hamas, and establish an alternative governing body for the Strip.
The Israeli Broadcasting Corporation (Kan) also revealed that Netanyahu granted Smotrich a free hand in expanding settlements in the West Bank – an issue Smotrich has aggressively championed.
Smotrich, who holds a second role in the Defence Ministry overseeing settlement construction, has openly declared that 2025 will mark the year of full Israeli sovereignty over the West Bank.
“We must kill the idea of a Palestinian state through annexation and sovereignty,” he recently stressed.
US pressure and Trump’s role
Netanyahu recently visited the US and met with President Donald Trump, a close ally, who had repeatedly urged an end to the war in Gaza before he returned to the White House.
During a joint press conference, Trump controversially suggested that the residents of Gaza should be deported and that the territory could be placed under US administration.
“Trump’s controversial statements [can be] dismissed as political manoeuvring aimed at aiding Netanyahu,” Israeli analyst Uri Misgav told The New Arab.
According to the Israeli Broadcasting Authority, Netanyahu and Trump also discussed normalising relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Meanwhile, Trump reportedly offered Netanyahu diplomatic rewards in exchange for a ceasefire in Gaza. Former Israeli diplomat Yeki Dayan said that Trump is keen on finalising a prisoner swap deal and expanding the Abraham Accords, making Saudi normalisation contingent on ending hostilities in Gaza.
Saudi Arabia, however, has maintained that it will only engage in normalisation if an independent Palestinian state is established – a stance that conflicts with Smotrich’s hardline position.
Smotrich recently reiterated, “An agreement with Saudi Arabia cannot include any recognition of a Palestinian state. No one should think that after October 7, the Arabs will be rewarded with statehood”.
Ceasefire manoeuvres and coalition stability
Political analyst Akiva Eldar believes Netanyahu may violate the ceasefire with Hamas – if only briefly – to appease Smotrich and secure his continued support.
“Netanyahu is also working to create a rift between Smotrich and Ben-Gvir to prevent them from uniting against him,” he told The New Arab.
Amid Israeli opinion polls indicating that the opposition is gaining ground, Trump’s comments about Gaza have provided Netanyahu with a much-needed boost, allowing him room to manoeuvre in pursuing Saudi normalisation while maintaining far-right coalitional support.
“We are witnessing one of the most difficult eras as neither Netanyahu nor Trump has a clear plan to put an end to the current conflict,” Ravit Hecht, an Israeli political expert, told TNA. “Netanyahu seeks to save his political life while the reality says that he is in danger.”
Key challenges until March
Ahed Firwana, a Palestinian political analyst specialising in Israeli affairs, told The New Arab that three significant challenges could determine Netanyahu’s fate in the coming months: the second phase of the prisoner deal with Hamas, the state budget approval, and the ultra-Orthodox military conscription debate.
“Netanyahu is known for his ability to broker compromises, and he is likely to delay decisive action on these issues to buy time. He is already seeking to extend the first phase of the ceasefire agreement to ensure the budget passes in the Knesset, securing his government’s stability,” Firwana said.
Netanyahu faces intense pressure regarding Haredi conscription. The ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism have threatened to abandon the coalition if forced enlistment is mandated.
Firwana explained that Netanyahu is exploring a compromise: allowing a limited number of Haredi recruits while exempting the majority under a civil service alternative.
The analyst believes that Smotrich’s threats are largely bluster. Polls show that Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party may not even pass the electoral threshold in the next elections, meaning he has a vested interest in keeping Netanyahu’s government afloat.
Will Netanyahu call for elections?
Despite speculation, Netanyahu is unlikely to call for early elections unless the political landscape shifts in his favour. Current polls suggest that the opposition, even without allying with Arab parties, would defeat his coalition. Given that Netanyahu is still facing corruption trials, he will avoid elections unless he is confident of victory.
However, Moamen Muqdad, a Palestinian political analyst, told The New Arab that the Israeli PM might opt for elections as a strategic escape.
“He could use Trump’s statements about Gaza and Saudi normalisation to rally right-wing support and sideline Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, whose influence he resents,” Muqdad said.
“Netanyahu is tired of the control exerted by Smotrich and Ben-Gvir over his government and decision-making,” Muqdad explained. “If he sees an opportunity, he may gamble on elections to reclaim authority over the right-wing bloc.”
Netanyahu’s potential downfall recalls the Bennett-Lapid coalition that briefly ousted him in 2021. That government, formed by a fragile alliance of right-wing, centrist, and left-wing parties, lasted until December 2022, before Netanyahu returned to power.
This is why Palestinian and Israeli political experts believe that a unified opposition – including centrists, leftists, and possibly Arab factions – with a clear political agenda could bring Netanyahu down again.
In a bid to protect himself from unprecedented actions, Netanyahu is employing his usual tactics: delaying decisions, maintaining the status quo, and playing rival factions against one another, according to Israeli and Palestinian experts.
“His immediate goal is to keep his coalition intact, satisfy far-right partners, and avoid an electoral defeat that could expose him to legal consequences,” Firwana said.
“Ultimately, his government’s survival depends on his ability to navigate the competing demands of Smotrich’s extreme-right agenda, Trump’s diplomatic pressure, and the looming threat of an opposition resurgence,” Muqdad said.
Mohammed Omer is a Palestinian writer and journalist from the Gaza Strip, focusing on stories in the occupied Palestinian territories and specialising in Israeli affairs
