Syrians wary of returning due to uncertain future and economy

Syrian refugees are slowly returning home following the fall of the Assad regime with pictures showing lines of cars waiting at borders crossings following 13 years in exile.

The collapse of the regime has spurred European states – including Germany, the UK, France and Italy – to suspend asylum applications from Syrian nationals, while Austria has gone one step further, saying it is preparing to deport around 100,000 Syrians from the country.

Some 1.3 million Syrian refugees live in Europe, with a further 4.8 million residing in neighbouring countries, however, UN agencies have warned their sudden return to Syria could hit efforts to attain political and economic stability in the country.

On 10 December Filippo Grandi, the chief of the UN’s Refugee Agency (UNHCR), called for “patience” on the issue, adding that “all must support a peaceful transition, crucial to make voluntary, dignified returns possible”.

UNHCR guidance issued on 10 December said that although the suspension of asylum application processing was “acceptable”, states are obligated to allow applications to be made and grant the same rights for those accepted for asylum, and not to make any forcible returns yet.

The director general of the UN’s migration agency, Amy Pope, said the sudden return of millions of Syrians could cause further problems in Syria, saying that “the communities, frankly, are just not ready to absorb the people who are displaced”.

The importance of international support

With the renewed effort to see refugees return to Syria, many are cautioning the rhetoric coming from host states, highlighting the major challenges that will prevent the immediate return of refugees to the country.

Bassam Alahmad, Executive Director for Syrians for Truth and Justice, told The New Arab that one such challenge is uncertainty about the Syria’s new transitional government, which is dominated by members of the Syrian Salvation Government, the Idlib civilian administrian that is linked to the Islamist rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former al-Qaeda affiliate.

Although HTS has issued statements assuring Syria’s minority communities and women Alahmad says that “the Syrian conflict taught us to monitor actions and not be satisfied with words only, so we need more action to believe that the new regime is different from the previous one”.

Another challenge is the destruction brought about by the 13-year civil war, with the now inadequate infrastructure of the country also acting as a barrier for the return of refugees.

“I also believe that if the new authorities fail to create a real transitional justice process and create a comprehensive democratic system of government that includes everyone, many will be prevented from returning,” said Alahmad.

Refugee return

Ranim Ahmed, the Communications Director for The Syria Campaign, told The New Arab that it was important for European countries to commit making Syria safe before making decisions about the return of refugees.

The UN, which failed so miserable she said in protecting Syrians for regime attacks and torture from their Damascus offices, had a commitment now to uphold Resolution 2245, which sets out a path for a Syrian led-political transition to democratic rule.

“European countries, the international community, the UN should all come together and push for this and support the rebuilding of Syria so that refugees can feel that Syria is a now a safe place to go back home,” Ahmed said.

Ahmed added that alongside refugees, many of Syria’s 7.4 million internally displaced were also heading back to their homes across the country, and will also need assistance.

“It is a great opportunity to have the Syria we have all been dreaming of like since 2011, we have been dreaming of Syria, a free, democratic and just country for all to have,” she told The New Arab. But she warned that such an opportunity can’t be seized without international support.

Turkey based-refugees

Taha Elgazi, a Turkey-based Syrian activist and former member of the local council for Aleppo city, said that while some Turkish politicians and journalists claim there’s no longer a justification for refugees to remain in the country, Syrians are worried that they will be pushed to return home prematurely.

“What the Syrian community fears most is the Turkish government deliberately imposing bureaucratic measures which force Syrian families to return,” he told The New Arab.

Last year, Ankara cancelled 200,000 temporary protections cards for Syrian refugees with many being arrested and deported back to Syria.

Although the government blamed the cancellation on a glitch, the event set a precedent.

“Now, Syrians in Turkey are scared the Turkish government, and especially the immigration directorate, will deliberately adopt a policy, which is covert and indirect, that will sop the temporary protection cards for Syrian refugees,” he added.

Elgazi added that the poor security situation in Syria – divided among armed actors, and led by a transitional government that people have reservations about – means the deportation of millions of refugees without international aid could compound Syria’s already significant stability challenges.

“The mass return of Syrian refugees without providing them with any material assistance will increase levels of unemployment, and the rise in unemployment will unfortunately increase frustration among the society which will lead to rising violence in the society and its implosion,” Elgazi warned.

Moreover, he said that more than one million Syrian children have been born in Turkey since 2011, and the reintegration of these and other refugees – absent for 13 years – could also be a challenge.

For Elgazi, at least one year is needed before refugees can begin returning home, if the international community funds the rebuilding of destroyed infrastructure in the interim period, and supports Syrians financially to rebuild their lives if they do fly back to Syria.

Stability intertwined with refugee return

Omar S.Dahi, Professor of Economics at Hampshire College and Founding Director of the Security in Context research network, echoed the warnings, noting several other obstacles preventing Syria from effectively absorbing refugees.

This includes weak state institutions due in part to international sanctions and legal questions regarding Syrians born outside the country during the war, potential housing or land disputes, as well as the latest round of displacement from fighting.

“None of those obstacles are insurmountable but they point to the need in caution and refraining from passing judgement on the situation,” he told The New Arab.

S.Dahi added that a path to economic and political stability in the country was necessary for the return of refugees, which in turn could help accomplish such a plan.

“In order for both to occur there needs to be a legitimate government that is both internally and internationally recognised because that is what will unlock post-conflict aid and resumption of economic normalcy,” he said.

“There is huge potential for economic revival of which Syria’s relatively skilled human capital can contribute, but that will be squandered if Syria is a weak, fragmented country.”